How Accurate Are Iranian Ballistic Missiles?
Assessing the precision of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal involves examining a range of platforms, from short‑range rockets to intercontinental‑range vehicles. Accuracy is measured primarily by the Circular Error Probable (CEP) – the radius within which 50 % of warheads are expected to land. While official Iranian statements often highlight high precision, independent analyses suggest a mixed picture that depends on missile type, launch platform, and technological maturity.
Key Missile Families and Their Accuracy Profiles
- Shahab‑3 – A medium‑range missile with a CEP reported by external observers around 200 m. Tests conducted in 2022 and 2023 show gradual improvements, yet the system still relies on inertial guidance.
- Fateh‑110 – A short‑range, solid‑fuel missile that has undergone extensive field trials. Reported CEP figures range from 30 m to 80 m depending on the variant and launch conditions.
- Zolfaghar – An intermediate‑range missile with a reported CEP of approximately 150 m. Its guidance system incorporates satellite navigation, improving accuracy over earlier models.
- Sejjil – A long‑range missile with a CEP of around 300 m. While the range is significant, the precision is comparatively lower than that of the Fateh‑110.
- Al‑Zahra (or “Zal”) – A newer system with limited public data; however, early tests in 2024 indicated a potential CEP of 50 m, suggesting a focus on precision.
Factors Influencing Accuracy
- Guidance Systems
- Inertial navigation remains the baseline for most Iranian missiles.
- Integration of satellite navigation (GLONASS, GPS) has improved precision in recent iterations.
- Real‑time data links are under development but not yet widely deployed.
